@davidreese – the problem with exercise calories is compensation, some of which you don’t have control over. For example if you burn an extra 300 calories, you easily eat that back, but even if you don’t your body can do things like slow down your heart rate while sleeping. There are other things that can happen like your body raising or lowering your body temperature, it is really something you can fully control.

Even diet can change your BMR by 30% or more. https://idmprogram.com/the-failure-of-the-calorie-theory-of-obesity/ (Blog about it) Top it off with the fact that even large processed food manufactures can’t accurately count calories in prepared foods which are often off as much as 25% and the amount of calories actually burned from exercise is probably much lower than what most people realize. (Learn some physics people …) Additionally calorie math is hopelessly bogus, for example it is unlikely that many peoples pound of fat is actually 3500 calories, more likely the fall in a range of about 2800 to 3700 calories per pound of fat! It may actually might seem hopeless. http://www.zoeharcombe.com/standalone/1lb-does-not-equal-3500-calories/

It isn’t hopeless, it is just that exercise is much more for health than weight control. Exercise does help with burning fat although unless you are really fat you might have to do something more than walking.

So over the short-term, what happens can be pretty random. Well most people do lose at least short term weight with a calorie deficit it can be very difficult to determine or control the calorie deficit. Many of us reach a point where calorie restriction is no longer practical and the body is unresponsive to what we can do. That happened to me for about two years. For me the cure was giving up sugar, switching from cardio to HIIT exercise and fasting. Really fasting is the golden ticket for building muscle in my experience provided there is some resistance training. https://idmprogram.com/a-short-primer-on-how-to-lose-weight/

So the short answers is stop overthinking it because you can’t really control the actual calories your body uses. Instead focus on nutrition and health.

@nag. Nothing like a bit of shameless self promotion.

@davidreese. Dy pretty well summed it up. If weight loss is your goal then diet should be your focus. If you want a toned body and better strength endurance etc then by all means do gym work. Exercise is good for the mind and body. While it does play a role in weight loss, focus on your diet. 90% diet 10% exercise.

How often have you seen a person on the treadmill for about an hour (supposedly that’s about 300 calories burnt). That effort allows you to eat a donut as compensation. In theory that sounds great, every time you get on a thread mill for an hour it allows you to either lose weight or eat a donut as a reward. So why aren’t the majority of people losing weight then? You will compensate for those burnt calories to maintain homeostasis.

While controlling your calorie intake may be simpler, regular exercise helps maintain lean muscle and burns more calories. Diet and exercise are therefore both crucial for weight loss, and combining the two will yield the best results.